Tumor Mutational Burden as a Predictor of Survival with Durvalumab and/or Tremelimumab Treatment in Recurrent or Metastatic Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma.

PURPOSE: Biomarkers that predict response to immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI) in recurrent or metastatic head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (R/M HNSCC) are needed. This retrospective study assessed tumor mutational burden (TMB) and outcomes in the phase II HAWK and CONDOR and phase III EAGLE studies of durvalumab with or without tremelimumab in platinum-resistant R/M HNSCC. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Tumor samples from HAWK/CONDOR (N = 153) and blood samples from EAGLE (N = 247) were analyzed for TMB. Associations with survival were evaluated for tissue TMB (tTMB) at cutoffs from 10 to 20 mutations/megabase (mut/Mb) and for blood plasma TMB (bTMB) at cutoffs from 8 to 24 mut/Mb. RESULTS: In HAWK/CONDOR, overall survival (OS) with durvalumab with or without tremelimumab was longer for high versus low tTMB: statistically significant differences were observed with durvalumab plus tremelimumab at tTMB ≥ 10 mut/Mb [HR, 0.52 (95% confidence interval, CI, 0.28-0.98)] and tTMB ≥ 12 mut/Mb [HR, 0.46 (95% CI, 0.24-0.86)]. In EAGLE, a significant OS benefit versus chemotherapy was observed with durvalumab and durvalumab plus tremelimumab at bTMB≥16 mut/Mb [HR, 0.39 (95% CI, 0.20-0.76) and 0.38 (95% CI, 0.19-0.78), respectively] but not bTMB < 16 mut/Mb [HR, 0.92 (0.61-1.37) and 0.92 (95% CI, 0.62-1.36), respectively]. A significant progression-free survival benefit was also observed in the ICI arms versus chemotherapy at bTMB ≥ 16 mut/Mb. CONCLUSIONS: Findings support TMB as a biomarker for predicting survival in patients with platinum-resistant R/M HNSCC treated with ICIs. The analysis of EAGLE demonstrated that bTMB was predictive of survival with ICI treatment versus chemotherapy in a large, randomized controlled study population.

Log-Rank Test vs MaxCombo and Difference in Restricted Mean Survival Time Tests for Comparing Survival Under Nonproportional Hazards in Immuno-oncology Trials: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

Importance: The log-rank test is considered the criterion standard for comparing 2 survival curves in pivotal registrational trials. However, with novel immunotherapies that often violate the proportional hazards assumptions over time, log-rank can lose power and may fail to detect treatment benefit. The MaxCombo test, a combination of weighted log-rank tests, retains power under different types of nonproportional hazards. The difference in restricted mean survival time (dRMST) test is frequently proposed as an alternative to the log-rank under nonproportional hazard scenarios. Objective: To compare the log-rank with the MaxCombo and dRMST in immuno-oncology trials to evaluate their performance in practice. Data Sources: Comprehensive literature review using Google Scholar, PubMed, and other sources for randomized clinical trials published in peer-reviewed journals or presented at major clinical conferences before December 2019 assessing efficacy of anti-programmed cell death protein-1 or anti-programmed death/ligand 1 monoclonal antibodies. Study Selection: Pivotal studies with overall survival or progression-free survival as the primary or key secondary end point with a planned statistical comparison in the protocol. Sixty-three studies on anti-programmed cell death protein-1 or anti-programmed death/ligand 1 monoclonal antibodies used as monotherapy or in combination with other agents in 35 902 patients across multiple solid tumor types were identified. Data Extraction and Synthesis: Statistical comparisons (n = 150) were made between the 3 tests using the analysis populations as defined in the original protocol of each trial. Main Outcomes and Measures: Nominal significance based on a 2-sided .05-level test was used to evaluate concordance. Case studies featuring different types of nonproportional hazards were used to discuss more robust ways of characterizing treatment benefit instead of sole reliance on hazard ratios. Results: In this systematic review and meta-analysis of 63 studies including 35 902 patients, between the log-rank and MaxCombo, 135 of 150 comparisons (90%) were concordant; MaxCombo achieved nominal significance in 15 of 15 discordant cases, while log-rank did not. Several cases appeared to have clinically meaningful benefits that would not have been detected using log-rank. Between the log-rank and dRMST tests, 137 of 150 comparisons (91%) were concordant; log-rank was nominally significant in 5 of 13 cases, while dRMST was significant in 8 of 13. Among all 3 tests, 127 comparisons (85%) were concordant. Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this review show that MaxCombo may provide a pragmatic alternative to log-rank when departure from proportional hazards is anticipated. Both tests resulted in the same statistical decision in most comparisons. Discordant studies had modest to meaningful improvements in treatment effect. The dRMST test provided no added sensitivity for detecting treatment differences over log-rank.

Applications of Covariate Adjusted Nonparametric Methods to CCTRN Clinical Trials.

CCTRN is a Cardiovascular Cell Therapy Research Network. There were three randomized double blinded controlled stem cell clinical trials conducted in its first phase. The main results of these three clinical trials were published with conventional parametric models such as T test and nonparametric test such as Wilcoxon rank sum test without adjusting covariates. In this article, we conducted further analysis of the primary outcomes of these studies using a class of covariate adjusted nonparametric methods.

Association of PD-L1 Expression on Tumor and Immune Cells with Survival in Recurrent or Metastatic Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma and Assay Validation.

Programmed cell death ligand-1 (PD-L1), expressed on both tumor cells (TC) and tumor-associated immune cells (IC), has been shown to be a useful biomarker and predictive of response to anti-PD-L1 agents in certain tumor types. In recurrent or metastatic head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (R/M HNSCC), there is a growing interest in the role of PD-L1 expression on ICs, as well as TCs, for predicting response to immune checkpoint inhibitors. Using pooled data from the phase II HAWK and CONDOR studies, we investigated the association of baseline PD-L1 expression with durvalumab efficacy in patients with R/M HNSCC. To determine an optimal PD-L1 cut-off point for predicting survival, we assessed PD-L1 expression levels at different TC and IC cut-off points in patients treated with durvalumab. Longer survival was associated with higher TC membrane PD-L1 expression and IC staining. When the combined TC/IC algorithm was applied, a cut-off point for PD-L1 expression of ≥50% on TCs or ≥25% on ICs (TC ≥ 50%/IC ≥ 25%) showed a higher objective response rate (17.2% vs. 8.8%), longer median progression-free survival (2.8 vs. 1.9 months), and longer median overall survival (8.4 vs. 5.4 months) in the PD-L1-high versus PD-L1-low/negative patient populations, respectively. A scoring algorithm combining PD-L1 expression on TCs and ICs using the cut-off point TC ≥ 50%/IC ≥ 25% was optimal for identifying patients with HNSCC most likely to benefit from durvalumab treatment. The new algorithm is robust and can be reproducibly scored by trained pathologists. Significance: A novel algorithm for PD-L1 expression using the cut-off point TC ≥ 50%/IC ≥ 25% is robust for identifying patients with HNSCC most likely to benefit from durvalumab treatment and can be reproducibly scored by trained pathologists.

Correlation Between Early Endpoints and Overall Survival in Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer: A Trial-Level Meta-Analysis.

Early endpoints, such as progression-free survival (PFS), are increasingly used as surrogates for overall survival (OS) to accelerate approval of novel oncology agents. Compiling trial-level data from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) could help to develop a predictive framework to ascertain correlation trends between treatment effects for early and late endpoints. Through trial-level correlation and random-effects meta-regression analysis, we assessed the relationship between hazard ratio (HR) OS and (1) HR PFS and (2) odds ratio (OR) PFS at 4 and 6 months, stratified according to the mechanism of action of the investigational product. Using multiple source databases, we compiled a data set including 81 phase II-IV RCTs (35 drugs and 156 observations) of patients with non-small-cell lung cancer. Low-to-moderate correlations were generally observed between treatment effects for early endpoints (based on PFS) and HR OS across trials of agents with different mechanisms of action. Moderate correlations were seen between treatment effects for HR PFS and HR OS across all trials, and in the programmed cell death-1/programmed cell death ligand-1 and epidermal growth factor receptor trial subsets. Although these results constitute an important step, caution is advised, as there are some limitations to our evaluation, and an additional patient-level analysis would be needed to establish true surrogacy.

A Blood-based Assay for Assessment of Tumor Mutational Burden in First-line Metastatic NSCLC Treatment: Results from the MYSTIC Study.

PURPOSE: Tumor mutational burden (TMB) has been shown to be predictive of survival benefit in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors. Measuring TMB in the blood (bTMB) using circulating cell-free tumor DNA (ctDNA) offers practical advantages compared with TMB measurement in tissue (tTMB); however, there is a need for validated assays and identification of optimal cutoffs. We describe the analytic validation of a new bTMB algorithm and its clinical utility using data from the phase III MYSTIC trial. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The dataset used for the clinical validation was from MYSTIC, which evaluated first-line durvalumab (anti-PD-L1 antibody) ± tremelimumab (anticytotoxic T-lymphocyte-associated antigen-4 antibody) or chemotherapy for metastatic NSCLC. bTMB and tTMB were evaluated using the GuardantOMNI and FoundationOne CDx assays, respectively. A Cox proportional hazards model and minimal P value cross-validation approach were used to identify the optimal bTMB cutoff. RESULTS: In MYSTIC, somatic mutations could be detected in ctDNA extracted from plasma samples in a majority of patients, allowing subsequent calculation of bTMB. The success rate for obtaining valid TMB scores was higher for bTMB (809/1,001; 81%) than for tTMB (460/735; 63%). Minimal P value cross-validation analysis confirmed the selection of bTMB ≥20 mutations per megabase (mut/Mb) as the optimal cutoff for clinical benefit with durvalumab + tremelimumab. CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrates the feasibility, accuracy, and reproducibility of the GuardantOMNI ctDNA platform for quantifying bTMB from plasma samples. Using the new bTMB algorithm and an optimal bTMB cutoff of ≥20 mut/Mb, high bTMB was predictive of clinical benefit with durvalumab + tremelimumab versus chemotherapy.

Quantitative Safety Monitoring in Clinical Trials: Application of Multiple Statistical Methodologies for Infrequent Events.

BACKGROUND: There are limited quantitative approaches for evaluating rare safety outcomes from controlled clinical trials in either a blinded or unblinded setting. This manuscript demonstrates an application of three statistical methods for quantitative safety monitoring that can be implemented during any phase of a clinical trial, including open-label extension studies. METHODS: An interactive safety monitoring (iSM) tool was developed using R language in the publicly available R-Shiny app and was implemented for three statistical methods of quantitative safety monitoring. These methods are sequential probability ratio test (SPRT), maximized SPRT (MaxSPRT), and Bayesian posterior probability threshold (BPPT). The iSM tool evaluated specific safety signals that incorporated pre-specified background rates or reference risk ratios. RESULTS: Two sets of blinded clinical trial data were used for case studies to demonstrate the use the iSM tool. Two particular adverse events, myocardial infarction (MI) and serious infection, were monitored. Monte Carlo simulation was conducted to evaluate the operating characteristics of pre-specified parameters. It showed that after adjusting for exposure, the BPPT and MaxSPRT yielded similar results in identifying a pre-specified signals while the SPRT method failed to detect such signals. CONCLUSION: Statistical methods shown for the case studies, as well as the application of the user-friendly iSM tool, greatly enhance the quantitative monitoring of safety events of interest in ongoing clinical trials The BPPT and MaxSPRT methods seem more sensitive in picking-up early signals than the SPRT method when the number of safety events is small.

Relationship Between Progression-Free Survival, Objective Response Rate, and Overall Survival in Clinical Trials of PD-1/PD-L1 Immune Checkpoint Blockade: A Meta-Analysis.

PD-1/PD-L1 immune checkpoint blockade (ICB) has improved overall survival (OS) in solid tumor trials; however, parallel improvements in Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST)-based surrogate end points, progression-free survival (PFS), and objective response rate (ORR), are not always observed. Here, we assess the surrogacy of PFS/ORR for OS with ICB therapy across advanced/metastatic tumors. In a trial-level analysis (N = 40 randomized trials), PFS, ORR, and OS treatment effects were correlated (Spearman's rho). In a patient-level analysis, data were extracted from available trials of durvalumab; the correlation of PFS and OS was evaluated (Bayesian normal-induced-copula-estimation model) and the ordinal association between objective response and OS hazard ratio (HR) were assessed with concordance index measures. High correlation was observed between PFS HR and OS HR in intention-to-treat (ITT; rho = 0.76) and PD-L1-enriched populations (0.74); modest (or limited) benefit in PFS was associated with meaningful improvement in OS. Moderate correlations were observed between ΔORR and OS HR: ITT, -0.63; PD-L1-enriched, -0.53. At the patient level, a positive association was observed between PFS and OS in non-small cell lung cancer (Kendall's Tau = 0.793; 95% confidence interval, 0.789-0.797), head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (0.794; 0.789-0.798), and bladder cancer (0.872; 0.869-0.875). Objective responders had significantly better OS (concordance index > 0.9) than nonresponders across these tumor types. Modest (or limited) improvement in RECIST-based end points did not rule out meaningful OS benefit, indicating they are imperfect surrogates and do not fully capture ICB clinical benefit. Therefore, caution is advised when basing early discontinuation of novel ICB agents on these end points.

Optimal PD-L1-high cutoff for association with overall survival in patients with urothelial cancer treated with durvalumab monotherapy.

BACKGROUND: Studies have indicated that programmed death ligand 1 (PD-L1) expression may have utility as a predictive biomarker in patients with advanced/metastatic urothelial carcinoma (UC). Different immunohistochemical (IHC) assays are in development to assess PD-L1 expression on tumor cells (TCs) and tumor-infiltrating immune cells (ICs). METHODS: In this post hoc analysis of the single-arm, phase 1/2 Study 1108 (NCT01693562), PD-L1 expression was evaluated from tumor samples obtained prior to second-line treatment with durvalumab in patients with advanced/metastatic UC using the VENTANA (SP263) IHC Assay. The primary objective was to determine whether the TC ≥ 25%/IC ≥ 25% algorithm (i.e., cutoff of ≥ 25% TC or ≥ 25% IC with PD-L1 staining at any intensity above background) was optimal for predicting response to durvalumab. PD-L1 expression data were available from 188 patients. RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 15.8 and 14.6 months, higher PD-L1 expression was associated with longer overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS), respectively, with significant separation in survival curves for PD-L1-high and-low expressing patients for the TC ≥ 25%/IC ≥ 25% cutoff (median OS: 19.8 vs 4.8 months; hazard ratio: 0.46; 90% confidence interval: 0.33, 0.639). OS was also prolonged for PD-L1-high compared with-low patients when samples were categorized using TC/IC combined positive score ≥ 10 and IC≥ 5% cutoffs. In multivariate analysis, IC but not TC PD-L1 expression was significantly associated with OS, PFS, and objective response rate (P < 0.001 for each), although interaction analysis showed similar directionality of benefit for ICs and TCs. CONCLUSIONS: These findings support the utility of a combined TC/IC algorithm for predicting response to durvalumab in patients with UC, with the TC≥ 25%/IC≥ 25% cutoff optimal when used with the VENTANA (SP263) IHC Assay.

Temporal Change in Tumor Volume Following Stereotactic Radiosurgery to a Single Brain Metastasis.

BACKGROUND: Stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) can be used to achieve local control of metastatic brain lesions. However, the temporal response of these lesions to SRS is incompletely understood and quantified. We aimed to examine the temporal response to SRS of single brain metastases from 4 different primary cancers. METHODS: A retrospective chart review was performed of patients who underwent SRS at our institution from 2009 to 2012. Clinical, treatment, and volumetric data were collected. All patients were treated according to Radiation Therapy Oncology Group 90-05 schema. RESULTS: This study included 204 patients (116 men and 88 women) with a median age of 61 years (range, 27-86 years). Of patients, 20 (10%) had breast cancer, 79 (39%) had non-small cell lung cancer, 69 (34%) had melanoma, and 36 (17%) had renal cell carcinoma. Initial overall median tumor volume was 0.8 cm3 (range, 0.02-16.9 cm3). Median tumor volume was 0.5 cm3 (range, 0.02-20.4 cm3) at 1 month after SRS, 0.3 cm3 (range, 0.02-10.8 cm3) at 3 months after SRS, and 0.4 cm3 (range, 0.02-18.6 cm3) at 6 months after SRS. Based on the joint model constructed from our results, we demonstrate a median 16% (95% confidence interval, 11%-20%) reduction in tumor volume every 30 days. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study demonstrate a consistent reduction in tumor volume following SRS over a 6-month period. Responses were modest over the first 30 days but accelerated at 3 months and varied by tumor type.

Prognostic Significance of Liver Metastasis in Durvalumab-Treated Lung Cancer Patients.

INTRODUCTION: Two clinical studies (Study 1108 and ATLANTIC) were analyzed to evaluate the prognostic value of baseline liver metastases (LMs) in advanced/metastatic non-small-cell lung cancer patients treated with durvalumab 10 mg/kg every 2 weeks. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis was conducted; covariates included performance status, tumor stage, histology, sex, age, smoking status, and programmed cell death ligand 1 (PD-L1) status. RESULTS: In all, 569 patients were included. LMs were present in 31.6% (96/304) of Study 1108 patients and 17.9% (47/263) of ATLANTIC patients. Median overall survival (OS) was shorter in patients with LMs than in those without in both studies. In both studies, LMs were an independent negative prognostic factor for OS and progression-free survival. Objective response rates were also significantly lower. PD-L1 independently predicted benefit across all patients. CONCLUSION: Liver metastases were associated with worse outcomes irrespective of PD-L1 status, but PD-L1 status predicted benefit from durvalumab irrespective of LMs.